How Much Surplus Value Do the Panini Blockchain NFTs Have Over The Physical Copies?
by R.A. Rowell
The first week of Panini Blockchain card auctions was a huge story. The Digital Collectibles Journal covered the sale of all 10 of the very first Panini Blockchain cards, including the first ever Panini Blockchain card sale of a Kobe Bryant 1/1 NFT (non-fungible token) for $61,714! Week 2 of the auctions looked to be an even better mix of rookies and stars, which is why we decided to hold off our analysis of the Week 1 sales until Week 2. Without the second round to compare to, the data wasn’t going to be as valuable.
The major question that I had, as have many other traditional sports card collectors and blockchain collectibles enthusiasts, is what the actual value of these Panini blockchain cards will be. The two major questions I have are these.
First, being on a PRIVATE Panini-owned blockchain - and not on a mainstream NFT-supporting blockchain network like Ethereum, EOS, Tron, Wax, etc - what is backing these cards’ value, especially with a physical counterpart that is a completely separate asset?
Secondly, what can be done with these digital assets besides just swapping them between digital collectors? Most NFTs have the ability to be displayed on a variety of apps and many are usable in popular blockchain-powered games. Panini has not yet made it clear what can be one with these blockchain cards outside of merely buying and selling them.
What Really Are Blockchain Trading Cards?
For those unfamiliar with what NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens) are, the Wikipedia definition is this:
A non-fungible token is a special type of cryptographic token which represents something unique; non-fungible tokens are thus not mutually interchangeable by their individual specification. This is in contrast to cryptocurrencies like Zcash, and many network or utility tokens that are fungible in nature.
Basically, each NFT is unique, much like a serial numbered trading card or other collectible. Panini has the opportunity to do something special with these. Blockchain trading cards have already met with success in soccer, where they can be used in a fantasy sports game. As of yet, there is no benefit to owning these Panini National Treasures Blockchain cards other than simply owning them as well as the ability to buy and sell them, albeit for now exclusively limited to Panini’s own marketplace.
What Panini is doing right with these blockchain NFTs is that they made a very good decision to pair these one-of-ones with a digital copy. This means that we have a frame of reference for what the “real life” counterpart could sell for, especially when the cards are based on the already super-popular National Treasures design. They also released a very strong checklist of 100 cards in their initial offering. Also, as NFTs, these cards can be utilized across a wide variety of applications, not tied to a single app like their legacy digital collectible apps.
The drawbacks to these crypto collectibles from Panini are obvious, though. They are tied to a private blockchain network owned by Panini. This means it doesn’t have the transparency of many of the popular networks out there. Even though you own the private keys to your blockchain cards, who is to say what Panini will allow you to do with them? On Ethereum and other popular blockchain networks that support NFTs, you can sell them on third-party websites and freely between others on the network using the private keys.
What Panini ultimately allows to happen with their blockchain remains to be seen. However, the potential of Panini creating a blockchain collectible empire is certainly a possibility. They have the resources, the customer base, and the popular brands to pave a brand new way for collectors to interact with trading cards.
For now, let’s see how the market, which hasn’t been really positive about the developments so far, reacted to the Week One offerings. After, we’ll compare those results with Week Two - in my opinion a better offering - and see how the market has changed, or not changed.
How Much Surplus Value Did the Week One Panini National Treasures Blockchain Offerings Have Over Physical Card Comps on eBay?
Let’s now answer the very question we set out to explore at the outset of this article: if one takes possession of the physical card, how much could that card be expected to sell for compared to the sales price of the Panini Blockchain auction? In this way, we can somewhat begin to assess the true value of the blockchain NFT asset right now and the potential profits their initial buyers may realize in the coming weeks and months - or even years if the market becomes that bullish.
Panini National Treasures is a premier brand in NFL football and NBA basketball. It’s also becoming a top brand for soccer cards, as well. However, Panini doesn’t have MLB or NHL licenses, but it does have deals with some individual hockey players and the MLB Players Association (MLBPA).
These distinctions in licensing are going to actually be quite important when it comes to the baseball and hockey cards. (There are a few hockey cards among the 100 cards initially offered.) I have written previously about how undervalued I believe Panini National Treasures cards are for baseball on Sports Card Investor. Being not fully licensed has adversely affected these cards’ values when compared to the fully-licensed Topps. But, of course, as of this writing at least, Topps has not yet jumped on the blockchain bandwagon.
The way that Panini has auctioned off these cards is a Dutch auction, starting the bids at a whopping $100,000 each. This starting point has been criticized by many, myself included. But, there are a couple of reasons for this. Many people see this as a money-grab by Panini jumping on the exploding blockchain collectibles market. But, really, many NFTs from other projects have started their bids at $100,000 worth of ETH - Ethereum’s primary cryptocurrency - or whatever their native cryptocurrency might be. Some of these NFTs have sold for 5 figures.
So, perhaps it’s not a huge surprise that one of the Panini Blockchain cards sold for five figures. What’s not as surprising is that the other 9 of the Week One cards broke $4,000. So, if you’ve been following the news, you’ll know who the number one card is. If not, you will see in a moment. Let’s list out the final sale prices of each of the Week One cards right now, in the order they sold. That’s very easy to do because it was a Dutch auction, in which the price drops every few minutes until a bidder decides to accept the sale at the current price.
Note that all of these 2019 Panini National Treasures Blockchain cards are one-of-one autographed cards that contain one or more patches. Note that Panini says to allow 8 to 12 weeks for delivery of the physical card, so it will be sometime in March before we start seeing these actually posted for sale on eBay, etc.
#1: Kobe Bryant - $61,714!
#2: Ja Morant/Rui Hachimura - $3,591.85
#3: Kyler Murray - $3,183.68
#4: Honus Wagner - $3,102.05
#5: Damian Lillard - $1,959.19
#6: Coby White - $1,959.19
#7: Gleyber Torres - $1,551.03
#8: Christian McCaffrey - $1,306.13
#9: Peyton Manning - $1,224.50
#10: Luis Suarez - $571.44
Talk about a wide range in the sale prices. Of course, that Kobe Bryant is a hilarious outlier, isn’t it? To be honest, pretty much every one likely expected Kobe’s card to be the first to sell. But, what explains the $58,122.15 gap between the first and second sales? My only thought was that it was a FOMO moment. Someone had to put in the first bid. While I’m sure most collectors expected most of these cards to sell for thousands, this was probably unexpected.
2019 Panini National Treasures Blockchain Kobe Bryant NBA Logoman Patch Autograph 1/1
Initial Sale Price: $61,714
Best Comp: 2015-16 National Treasures Kobe Bryant Game-Used NBA Logoman Tag Patch AUTO 1/1 PSA 10 (Ebay link)
Comp Last Sold Price: $15,000 (November 21, 2019)
Estimated Surplus Paid: $46,714
It would’ve been entirely reasonable for this auction to end at $30,000 or so, if we consider the blockchain asset to have the same comparable value as the physical card. Was this a gross overpay? Perhaps. But, there is enormous value in coming first, especially with Kobe’s entry into the Basketball Hall of Fame very near. Being a one-of-one, it’s not impossible that the buyer could recoup a vast percentage of the initial sale by selling both assets.
The beauty of being a one-of-one is that the only ceiling on its value is the market. If I were holding this card after making this big of a purchase, I’d wait until his Hall of Fame induction is announced. Will the blockchain card alone fetch $50,000? It’s not impossible.
2019 Panini National Treasures Blockchain Ja Morant/Rui Hachimura Dual NBA Logoman Auto
Initial Sale Price: $3,591.85
Best Comp for Ja Morant: 2019-20 Panini National Treasures Collegiate Auto Nike Patch Ja Morant 1/1 (Sold for $1800 on Dec. 10, 2019)
Best Comp for Rui Hachimura: 2019-20 National Treasures Black Rui Hachimura RPA RC Rookie Patch AUTO 1/1 (Sold for $787.67 on Nov. 18, 2019)
Best Comp for Dual Logoman Auto 1/1: Kevin Knox/Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2018-19 Immaculate Logoman Patch Auto RC (Sold for $3100 on Dec. 29, 2019)
Estimated Surplus Paid: $500 or less
It doesn’t surprise me at all that this card was the second sale overall. After all, Ja Morant has had an incredible rookie year. Hachimura is a great talent and only boosts the overall value of this card. Being Japanese makes him one of the more unique talents in the NBA, and of course, we all know that Japan has a strong sports card market. Hachimura has another card in the Week 2 offerings that we’ll get to in a bit.
This is one of the more unique cards in that it’s a dual of Ja Morant and Rui Hachimura, the first of its kind. Morant and Hachimura were featured on a 2019 Immaculate Patch card numbered to 5 that also included Zion Williamson and RJ Barret (ebay link). That card sold for just $110.50 on December 3rd, 2019.
The best real comp is a 2018-19 dual Logoman auto of Kevin Knox/Shai Gilegeous-Alexander that sold for $3100. While Hachimura hasn’t reached the level of those other two, Morant has been so spectacular that around $3000 would seem a fair price. That means that the blockchain card would only have to sell for $600 or so for surplus market value. The physical card alone may have a true market value of more than $3600 if Morant wins Rookie of the Year, which is extremely likely. This was a good purchase.
2019 Panini National Treasures Blockchain Kyler Murray NFL Shield Auto 1/1
Initial Sale Price: $3,183.68
Best Comps: 2019 PANINI UNPARALLELED KYLER MURRAY AUTO NFL SHIELD PATCH CARD #'d 1/1 (Sold for $848 on Nov. 21, 2019) & KYLER MURRAY 2019 Spectra SuperFractor Autograph Auto RPA NFL Shield Rookie 1/1 (Sold for $839 on Oct. 24, 2019)
Estimated Surplus Paid: $2300 or less
While they aren’t perfect comps, the 2019 Panini Unparalleled and Spectra SuperFractor one-of-ones are about as close as we’ll get to this Kyler Murray one-of-one. They both feature NFL Shield logo patches and autos and both sold for around $850. Being National Treasures and effectively being a Rookie Patch Auto (RPA) should boost its value a bit. The estimated surplus of about $2300 paid for the blockchain card is based on that comp, and this card is probably worth $1000 or more.
The problem is that despite Kyler Murray showing lots of potential, he played for a non-contender in the Arizona Cardinals. That is likely to change over the next few years, so this card in physical form alone should be worth a lot more as soon as the 2020 NFL season. While this was perhaps a slight overpay, if Murray lives up to his hype - which he may - it won’t be an overpay at all. This will be a key card to watch for this Week One offering. I’ll take the under on that surplus estimate, significantly under.
2019 Panini National Treasures Blockchain Honus Wagner Cut Auto 1/1
Initial Sale Price: $3,102.05
Best Comp: 2004 Legendary Cuts BGS 9.5 (ebay link)
Estimated Surplus Paid: $100 to $500
The Honus Wagner cut auto was one of the key cards initially used to promote the Panini Blockchain cards. You have to dig for a cut auto comp, as most National Treasures Honus Wagner cards feature bat relics. The most recent cut auto sales of Honus Wagner were a Best Offer on a 2018 Topps Luminaries (listed at about $2,300 USD, but sold for just about $1,550) on November 21st, 2019 (ebay link) and a 2004 Legendary Cuts BGS 9.5 (ebay link) which sold for $3,000 on November 19th, 2019.
I’m leaning towards the SP Legendary Cuts comp for a couple of reasons. The Topps Luminaries card is graded only a 7 for the Auto. Plus, it’s only graded for the auto. Also, the sales price isn’t easy to find bring a Best Offer. So, assigning a value of $3,000 to the physical copy of this Blockchain card is reasonable to me. Even if you split the difference at about $2,500, due to being a raw card, this sale still feels light to me.
As an absolute hobby legend - thanks to his extremely rare T206 card - and one of the first all-time greats of baseball, any baseball card collector should be happy to have this in their collection. This is the first of the sales that I see as being much too light VS the value of both assets combined. This was a good buy for whoever purchased it.
2019 Panini National Treasures Blockchain Damian Lillard NBA Logoman Patch Autograph 1/1
Initial Sale Price: $1,959.19
Best Comp: 2017-2018 Panini National Treasures Damian Lillard NBA Logoman Auto/Patch #1/1 (ebay link) sold for $4,600 with Best Offer on Oct. 31, 2019
Estimated Surplus Paid: -$2,640
Damian Lillard is certainly among the best players in the NBA. So, it’s not a surprise that his was the 5th overall sale. What is surprising is how low it sold for compared to its best comp. The physical card is probably worth somewhere in the neighborhood of $4,000 to $5,000 if you go by the comp we chose. Really any way you look at it, the physical card alone should be worth much more than $2,000.
With his great success in the 2019-20 season, Lillard’s card have been a hot item. So, his card market may cool before the physical card arrives to its buyer. We’ll know before then what’s happening with the blockchain card - if it’s immediately listed for sale or held for another hot stretch. This was one of the true bargains of the Blockchain auctions in my eyes.
2019 Panini National Treasures Blockchain Coby White NBA Logoman Patch Autograph 1/1
Initial Sale Price: $1,959.19
Best Comp: Coby White 2019 Panini National Treasures Jordan Logoman 1/1 Tar Heels #7 (ebay link) listed for $3,500 or Best Offer as of 1/11/20
Estimated Surplus Paid: -$1,500
Selling for the same price as Damian Lillard’s card is good news for Coby White. Of course, the advantage of this card is that it could be considered a Rookie Patch Auto (RPA) which the Lillard certainly cannot. While the comp we found wasn’t perfect - it’s a college 1/1 - it’s about as close as you’ll get. Because the card hasn’t actually sold as of this writing, it’s even less of a perfect comp. However, that price isn’t absurd, especially when you’re averaging over 20 points and 10 rebounds a game as a rookie.
This is actually a pretty low price for a 1/1 of such a talented rookie. The physical card alone is going to be worth over $2,000. This was a major bargain, and being a rookie card, it’s probably even more of a relative bargain than Lillard’s card.
2019 Panini National Treasures Blockchain Gleyber Torres MLB Logoman Patch Autograph 1/1
Initial Sale Price: $1,551.03
Best Comp: 2017 National Treasures Baseball Gleyber Torres Patch Auto 1/1 (ebay link) with Best Offer Sold at $425
Estimated Surplus Paid: $1,175
There are several notable things to say about the first Panini Blockchain baseball card to sell at auction. First off, it actually sold at a higher price than I expected, as good as Gleyber Torres is. However, that price may not be as high as the estimated surplus may suggest, as the comp is not nearly as attractive as this card. This price is probably fair considering that there are both the physical and digital counterparts to this sale.
However, the one drawback to this card is that it’s not a Rookie Patch Auto, as the 2017 National Treasures card is. But it’s a Logoman, which certainly helps its value. Torres is a very popular player and he had a spectacular 2019 season. He’ll have to keep up the same level of play for this combo of digital and physical card to turn a significant profit, though. However, being a Yankee, and one that’s extremely popular in the hobby at that, I would say that the surplus paid for the blockchain card over the physical one is going to be much smaller than $1100 - $1200. It’s just speculation, though. We’ll have to see if one or the other sells within the next few months to set the market.
2019 Panini National Treasures Blockchain Christian McCaffrey NFL Shield Auto 1/1
Initial Sale Price: $1,306.13
Best Comp: 2017 National Treasures Christian McCaffrey 1/1 RC AUTO NFL SHIELD LOGO PSA 10 (ebay link) Sold for $5,500 on Nov. 29, 2019
Estimated Surplus Paid: -$4,200
The biggest difference between this card and its comp is that the 2017 National Treasures 1/1 is a true Rookie Patch Auto. This is not an RPA, so the estimated surplus number is a bit high. That being said, Christian McCaffrey is one of the most exciting players in the NFL today and if the Panthers are a better team in 2020, and he continues to perform, cards like this should be a solid investment. In any case, this sale was a bargain for its buyer.
2019 Panini National Treasures Blockchain Peyton Manning NFL Shield Auto 1/1
Initial Sale Price: $1,224.50
Best Comp: 2010 Plates & Patches Peyton Manning NFL Shield Logo Patch AUTO 1/1 BGS 9.5 (ebay link) sold for $831 on Jan. 6, 2020
Estimate Surplus Paid: $400 or less
For all of his accomplishments, Peyton Manning cards are quite undervalued when compared to his peers. Part of that is likely due to retiring in 2016 after the Super Bowl win with the Denver Broncos. So, this sale, like those of many of his key cars, feels a bit light. The closest comp we could find was from 2010 Plates & Patches. His other one-of-ones don’t really compare. It’s far from a perfect comp, as it’s also graded gem mint by Beckett. This was still a relative bargain for the buyer.
2019 Panini National Treasures Blockchain Luis Suarez Dual Patch Auto 1/1
Initial Sales Price: $571.44
Best Comp: 2018 Topps UEFA Museum Champions League Green Luis Suarez Logo Patch AUTO 1/1 (ebay link) sold for $280 on Jan. 9, 2020.
Expected Surplus Value: $250
Without even checking the eBay comps, I can tell you this card went much lower than it should have. There was at least one potential buyer who would’ve paid $1,000 for this auction. What I will say is that this was closer to the comps than I would have first thought - as soccer isn’t my forte.
The most similar card was actually a 2018 Topps card, and its sale price of $280 was about right in line with this sale. The most expensive recent sale for a 1/1 patch for Luis Suarez was actually from an even higher-end product in Immaculate and it sold at best offer for $350 (ebay link) on November 20th, 2019. For our purposes, I split the difference at $320 when factoring the surplus value of the blockchain card.
According to the comps, this was still a slight bargain. I will say that some feedback that I saw was that the patches weren’t as impressive as the others. While that’s true, this card should’ve performed better. Soccer cards are still not as popular as basketball, baseball, and football, but they are getting there. I expect this card to sell for significantly more than the initial sale would suggest.
Week One Analysis
The Kobe Bryant sale made headlines, but all ten of these sales were a landmark for trading cards as blockchain collectibles. At least three were clear bargains (Lillard, Coby White, and McCaffrey.) Only Kyler Murray and Gleyber Torres were clear overpays when compared to current comps and both have potential to be good buys as soon as next season.
Onto week two, the card lineup for the next ten cards looked like this:
DeAndre Hunter Logoman Patch Auto
Shohei Ohtani Button Patch Auto
Jerry Rice Patch Auto
Rui Hachimura Logoman Patch Auto
Patrick Mahomes Shield Patch Auto
Russell Wilson Shield Patch Auto
Ja Morant/RJ Barrett Dual Logoman Auto
Kevin Garnett Logoman Auto
Maradona Dual Patch Auto
Charles Woodson Patch Auto
Through Friday morning, no bids had been made. While this is a very strong group of guys, I don't think anyone thought we would top $10k at all in week 2. My pick for first to go was Patrick Mahomes, coming off that AFC divisional round blowout of the Texans. Soon to be Hall of famer Kevin Garnett I saw going second or third. Russell Wilson was knocked out by the 49ers but I saw him being one of the first to go, as well.
The week two auctions ended on January 17th with some interesting results. Here's the sale order and final sales tally:
Patrick Mahomes: $4979.60
Kevin Garnett: $4653.07
Ja Morant/RJ Barrett: $3918.38
Rui Hachimura: $3510.21
Russell Wilson: $1959.19
DeAndre Hunter: $1959.19
Jerry Rice: $1959.19
Shohei Ohtani: $1795.93
Charles Woodson: $653.07
As it turns out I got Mahomes and Garnett right on. A few of these seem like they went low right away. Let's take a look.
Panini National Treasures Blockchain Patrick Mahomes Patch Auto 1/1
Initial Sales Price: $4979.60
Best Comp: 2018 National Treasures NFL Shield Logo Patch AUTO 1/1 BGS 9 (eBay link) Sold for $5655 on Nov. 11, 2019
Estimated Surplus Paid: -$600
Mahomes rookie patch autos from 2017 have sold for five figures recently. Of course, this is not a rookie patch auto, so we instead compared it to his 2018. If we use that card as a touchpoint, then this is a fair bargain. If Mahomes goes to the Super Bowl, it will be moreso. If he wins it all, this was a major bargain.
Panini National Treasures Blockchain Kevin Garnett Patch Auto 1/1
Initial Sales Price: $4653.07
Best Comp: No recent comps
Estimated Surplus Paid: Unknown
There haven't been any similar one-of-one type cards recently sold for Kevin Garnett. But many low serial numbered Garnett patch autos have sold for as high as $5,000. So, this may end up being a bargain, especially after he's officially announced as a new member of the Basketball Hall of Fame.
Panini National Treasures Blockchain Ja Morant/RJ Barrett Patch Auto 1/1
Initial Sales Price: $3918.38
Best Comp: 2019 Panini National Treasures Blockchain Ja Morant/Rui Hachimura, Sold for $3,591.85 in Week 1
Estimated Surplus Value: -$300
It did seem fair that the Morant/Barrett card would best the sale price of the Morant/Hachimura. It did do that by about $300. It really depends on who you like more: Barrett or Hachimura going forward. This price is just fine and probably a solid bargain.
Panini National Treasures Blockchain Rui Hachimura Patch Auto 1/1
Initial Sales Price: $3510.21
Best Comp: 2019 Panini National Treasures Blockchain Ja Morant/Rui Hachimura, Sold for $3,591.85 in Week 1
Estimated Surplus Value: $100 or more
Considering that Hachimura's best comp when compared to the Dual Logoman Auto he shared with Ja Morant from week one was valued at just $800, this is an interesting development. But, of course, the best Comp for this card is the dual Logoman. A lot rides on how Hachimura develops, but this has the potential to be a fair price when you consider the value of the blockchain and physical assets combined.
Panini Blockchain National Treasures Blockchain Russell Wilson Patch Auto 1/1
Initial Sales Price: $1959.19
Best Comp: 2017 Immaculate Football Russell Wilson Patch Auto 1/1 NFL Shield BGS 9.5/10 (eBay link) sold for $1699 on Dec. 4, 2019
Estimated Surplus Paid: $400 or less
Were Russell Wilson playing on the NFC championship game, this card would've likely sold for more. The best Comp wasn't far off this card and other one of one patch auto cards of Wilson's sold for $2,000, $3,000, or more. So, this sale was probably a fair price for the physical copy alone. This is likely a bargain long-term.
Panini National Treasures Blockchain DeAndre Hunter Patch Auto 1/1
Initial Sales Price: $1959.19
Best Comps: 2019 Panini Blockchain National Treasures Damian Lillard & Coby White (Each sold for $1959.19 in Week 1)
Estimated Surplus Paid: $0
There wasn't a great comp for this card outside of two very similar Panini Blockchain NBA cards that sold in Week 1. That it sold for the exact same price as those two seems to suggest a fair market price for this type of card has been set.
Panini National Treasures Blockchain Jerry Rice Patch Auto 1/1
Initial Sales Price: $1959.19
Best Comp: 2015 Crown Royale Silhouettes Jerry Rice GU 75th NFL Shield Logo Patch AUTO 1/1 (eBay link) sold for $1030 on Dec. 23, 2019
Estimated Surplus Paid: $900
The closest comp to this card sold for a little over $1000. That suggests this sale was a slight bargain if you consider the block chain card to have about the same value. I would suggest the prestige of the National Treasures brand significantly eats into that surplus as I feel the physical copy of this card could fetch more at auction. This card is a definite wait and see.
Panini National Treasures Blockchain Shohei Ohtani Button Patch Auto 1/1
Initial Sales Price: $1795.93
Best Comp: 2018 National Treasures Rookie Patch Auto Platinum 1/1 BGS 8.5 (eBay link) Sold for $830 on Dec. 5, 2019
Estimated Surplus Paid: $900 or more
Ohtani is the lone baseball card in Week 2. While he hit fine in 2019, Ohtani's real value comes in being a true two-way player. His return to the mound will have a lot to do with his card market.
Our comp isn't perfect, but it's as close as we will get. Being a button patch makes this card unique much as the Authentic tag on the Platinum RPA is. At first glance the price seems high, but a strong year on both the mound and at the plate for Ohtani could make this a bargain as the 2020 MLB season progresses.
Panini National Treasures Blockchain Maradona Dual Patch Auto 1/1
Initial Sales Price: $979.60
Best Comp: 2019 Panini National Treasures Blockchain Luis Suarez (Sold Week 1 for $571.44)
Estimated Surplus Paid: $400 or more
The Maradona was expected to beat last week's Luis Suarez sale. It did that rather handily, nearly breaking $1000. This may have been a slight overpay right now, but it's hard to say since this Maradona doesn't really have a comp. My opinion is that this is a nicer card. Also, with soccer cards still an emerging markets for Panini, this price I would say is fairer than it looks, especially for a retired legend.
Panini National Treasures Blockchain Charles Woodson Patch Auto
Initial Sales Price: $653.07
Best Comp: 2018 Panini Flawless Nike Swoosh Patch Auto 1/1 (eBay link) Sold for $322 on Nov. 11, 2019
Estimated Surplus Paid: $300 or more
While I would expect Woodson to be the lowest of the sales, this one isn't a crazy huge bargain. You can argue the comp isn't perfect, as Flawless is higher end than National Treasures. The Flawless card may be nicer. But this sale seems perfectly fair.
Week Two Analysis
The market definitely seems to have settled on prices for these cards. There weren't as many crazy overpays or clear bargains in Week 2. In fact, all these prices may end up being more than fair. What's very obvious is that Panini has no business starting these auctions at $100,000… but of course, they're going to keep up this stupid high starting point for their Dutch auctions for Weeks 3 through 10.
What do you think of these prices for these new Panini Blockchain cards? Do you agree or disagree with our analysis? Keep in mind that because this market is so new, our comps are going to be less than perfect. What I can easily say is that the market corrected after just a single week.
Really, we won't know what the true secondary market for these cards will be until the blockchain cards hit the Panini auction block. It will be a couple months before we know the fate of some of the physical cards, as well. The actual surplus paid for the blockchain card based on imperfect physical comps is likely to be very different.
Of course, for now we can only depend on the information we have available. I will say that Panini needs to be a lot more realistic with their starting bids, but there is definitely interest and a willingness to spend on these.
What do you think of the Panini Blockchain cards? We will be back to analyze the sales for Week 3!
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R.A. Rowell is a collectibles enthusiast who comes from a long history of collecting trading cards in both sports and in Trading Card Games. He is passionate about educating the world about the future promise and benefits of digital collectibles, both on the blockchain and off.